I agree with you on your election analysis here–but I think that if she does as well or better than expected, and if she appears to have “momentum,” however you want to define that, the Supers could go either way. 140 delegates is less than 15% of the total needed (using 2025 as the magic number), so it’s not a prohibitive lead, especially considering HRC’s strength in the big states where Democrats live.

The Superdelegates want to win in November. I think that will be their overriding concern, so that’s who each campaign is really going to be directing their messages to.

Listen, just for the record I think Clinton has faced a lot of unfair attacks during this campaign. So has Obama. I think the race has brought out a lot of ugliness in terms of sexism and racism. And I think that, while the math makes a Clinton win look impossible (to me, anyways), Obama can’t “beat” her. Her coalition is very strong. His coalition is very strong. In places where he is favored demographically, he wins. In places where she is favored, she wins. Unfortunately because of the nature of the primaries, I doubt there will be a conclusive end to this that will satisfy people. It’s just a long war of attrition. Everything else is just spin. So I will say with pretty good confidence that, looking at the rest of the schedule, if the race goes through all the primaries Obama will win North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, and Guam. Clinton will win Kentucky and West Virginia (both by huge margins). Indiana will be close. Puerto Rico is anybody’s guess, but I’d favor Clinton there.

In the end Obama will have more pledged delegates (by about 140 or so), and will lead in the popular vote (unless you count Michigan.) If you count Florida the popular vote might be close depending on how Puerto Rico plays out. Ultimately, the supers just aren’t going to defect in large enough numbers to Clinton, not unless Obama falls under indictment or something crazy like that.

Actually–I checked it out: that’s an asinine editorial. “The Low Road to Victory?” Please. She’s been a creampuff compared to the way John Kerry kneecapped Howard Dean, or compared to what Obama can expect in a general election. And how can we trust the newspaper of record when it leads its editorial with the phrase, “The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday…”?

Hmm. Must be that new Clinton math, like Clinton rules for the press. A TEN POINT WIN = inconclusive.

Open primaries are a drag–but they favor Obama! I hope your being out of the country in November means good news for you.

What concerns me a little is that NC and IN are open primaries, and I just know Rush Limbaugh is going to go on the radio and tell all his listeners to screw with the Democrats’ process.

Anyway, I’ve decided no matter what I’ll probably vote for Obama, either as the Dem. candidate or as a write-in. But it will have to be absentee, since I’ve now learned I’ll be leaving the country in October.